Middle East Shipping on High Alert as Greece Issues Warnings and Tanker Rates Surge
The maritime industry is on high alert following U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities on June 21. Tensions in the region have escalated significantly, leading to increased security warnings and dramatic shifts in global shipping patterns. Greece, one of the world’s most influential maritime nations, has issued advisories to its shipowners, urging extreme caution when navigating the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding areas.
The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow passage responsible for approximately 20 to 25 percent of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas shipments, is once again the focal point of geopolitical risk. In light of the recent developments, shipping routes through the area are being reevaluated. Greece's Ministry of Shipping has encouraged vessels to consider pausing in nearby safe ports or to reroute altogether, depending on their risk assessments.
In parallel, tanker earnings have surged by nearly 90 percent. According to market analysts, very large crude carrier (VLCC) rates have doubled, reaching levels around WS 75, equivalent to approximately $57,000 per day. This increase is largely driven by a heightened risk premium as shipowners factor in the costs and dangers associated with transiting the Gulf region. These shifts indicate a growing reluctance among commercial fleets to engage directly in high-risk zones.
Fleet tracking data has revealed that many supertankers have altered course, are pausing outside the Strait, or are rerouting through the Arabian Sea and Gulf of Oman. The volume of traffic entering and exiting the Strait has decreased, with roughly 32 percent fewer empty vessels and a 27 percent drop in loaded departures compared to earlier in the year.
Security risks are not limited to direct confrontation between the United States and Iran. Analysts have pointed out that allied proxy groups, including Yemen’s Houthi rebels, have intensified their threats in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. This has further complicated navigation in the broader region, prompting several shipping companies to temporarily suspend operations in affected areas.
Adding to concerns, Iran’s parliament recently passed a resolution calling for the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz in response to the airstrikes. Although the implementation of such a measure falls under the authority of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, the possibility alone has unsettled global markets. A closure could halt nearly $1 billion worth of daily oil shipments and push global oil prices above $100 per barrel, potentially triggering major disruptions to energy supply chains and global trade.
In response to the evolving threat landscape, naval authorities such as the European Union Naval Force and the Joint Maritime Information Center have issued coordinated guidance to international fleets. They recommend increased vigilance, rerouting when feasible, and close monitoring of regional military developments.
The current situation underscores the delicate balance between operational efficiency and navigational safety. While elevated freight rates may offer short-term gains for tanker operators, the risks posed by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East necessitate careful, informed decision-making by maritime stakeholders worldwide.
