IEA Forecasts Stagnant Global Bunker Fuel Demand Through 2030
The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that global bunker‑fuel demand will remain stagnant at roughly five million barrels per day between 2024 and 2030. This downturn stems from a sharp slowdown in shipping demand linked to global economic weakness and increasing logistical costs, alongside mounting environmental regulatory pressures.
Despite a temporary rise in marine fuel consumption in 2024—prompted by rerouting vessels around the Red Sea during regional security incidents—the IEA reports that underlying demand is unlikely to pick up. The uptick, estimated at 140,000 barrels per day, was modest relative to long‑term expectations.
A major contributing force behind this shift is the impending International Maritime Organization (IMO) carbon pricing mechanism. Approved by member states in April, this system mandates that ships pay penalties for exceeding greenhouse gas emission targets. It awaits final approval in October 2025 and is expected to come into force in 2028. By pricing carbon emissions, the IMO framework is set to reshape bunker demand and erode profit margins for exporters of conventional fuels.
For marine fuel suppliers, stagnant volumes and rising regulatory compliance costs threaten revenue growth and profits. To maintain relevance, these companies must pivot toward low-carbon solutions, including biofuels, LNG, methanol, and ammonia.
Shipowners also face significant transition challenges. Older, less efficient vessels will face higher operational costs due to forthcoming carbon levies. To comply, owners will need to invest in engine retrofits, slow steaming, or dual-fuel vessels. Meanwhile, charterers and shippers are likely to confront rising freight rates as IMO costs are passed through, potentially leading to new contract clauses linked to CO₂ efficiency or green fuel use.
A critical question now is whether biofuel adoption will accelerate under these conditions. On one hand, carbon pricing creates financial incentives for switching to low‑emission fuels, and biofuels present a near-term compliance option with existing engine technology. Major operators, including Maersk, are targeting 15–20% alternative fuel usage by 2030 through strategies involving biofuel and green methanol.
On the other hand, progress may stall due to infrastructure limitations and the rise of rival green fuels such as ammonia and hydrogen-based fuels. Shipowners and fuel suppliers may find themselves in a wait-and-see standoff, pending clearer regulatory signals and concrete supply chains.
With global trade experiencing headwinds, the disconnect between economic and shipping growth is widening, further curbing bunker fuel consumption. As the IMO's carbon pricing scheme nears finalization, the maritime industry is approaching a decisive moment. Suppliers, vessel operators, and charterers must now evaluate whether biofuel transitions represent practical compliance strategies or whether the industry will pivot toward other decarbonization pathways.
